How to maintain nuclear stability in an environment of global instability?

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022,

Russia has periodically alluded to the fact that the nuclear option still exists. On 25 November 2024, Russian President Putin told the National Security Council of the Russian Federation that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons if it is attacked by any country, even with conventional weapons, adding that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons if Moscow receives "reliable information" about the start of a mass launch of missiles, aircraft or drones against it. The Russian President gave a warning that any nuclear power supporting another country's attack on Russia would be considered an accomplice in the invasion. This was a very clear warning to NATO, as he is reluctant to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons that have the capability to penetrate deep into Russian territory.

The Russian president said that given the contemporary military situation facing Russia, it was an urgent imperative to refine Russia's nuclear posture. His comments were widely reported, adding to the Russian nuclear doctrine published in 2020. According to the coverage, he confirmed,

"We see that the modern military and political situation is changing dynamically and we must take this into account, including the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies." The last iteration of Russia's nuclear doctrine is titled Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. Moscow is not the only country revising its nuclear force. At the same time, there is a debate in Western strategic circles whether Israel is using the "available" window due to its busy presidential election to dismantle the still undeclared Iranian nuclear program in the wake of recent ballistic missile attacks on Israel by Iran and its allies.

Writing in Foreign Policy, Matthew Henry Croning, senior director at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, says that now is actually an ideal opportunity to destroy Iran's nuclear program. The country has 1 to 2 weeks left to build a bomb. There is no new nuclear deal. Hezbollah is in no position to retaliate against Hamas. In fact, this may be the last best chance to prevent Tehran from getting bombed. US presidential candidate (and now US President) Donald Trump, when asked whether Israel should attack the Iranian nuclear program and why do you think Iran is a threat, said that unless they have a nuclear weapon, that's the thing you want to attack.

Israel is surely maintaining strategic silence as it considers its retaliatory options. Targeting Iran's nuclear facilities is a dangerous course to take, to say the least. Despite all this fire and fury, no sane student of strategic affairs can live under the false impression that uncontrolled and perhaps uncontrollable escalation would occur if Israel were to strike Iran's crown jewels.

The question, therefore, is how to maintain nuclear stability in this period of political instability, when three conflicts are raging simultaneously across three continents: Russia vs Ukraine, Israel vs Hamas/Houthis/other proxies, and Iran.

In North Asia, the unstable North Korean regime keeps using the "N" word frequently and China's rise is not peaceful, as is evident from the enduring tensions in North, Southeast and South Asia. It has its own nuclear dynamic. The leaders of the Communist revolution in China, led by Mao Zedong, were of the view that the purpose of building a nuclear deterrent was to safeguard China's core interests. In the decades following its first nuclear test in 1964, China adopted an edging nuclear stance, based on achieving an unlimited nuclear deterrence with the then Soviet Union and the United States.

At the same time, the United States has also quietly revised its nuclear guidelines. The US President approved a revised approach called Nuclear Employment Guidance which is now being planned to re-measure US nuclear theology to meet potential nuclear challenges simultaneously from China, Russia, and North Korea. This is the existential challenge of our time. How to maintain nuclear stability in an environment of strategic instability?

Gajendra Kumar Parkash Chand morya 🙏🏻